SAG Awards 2013: Who Will (and Should) Win

EW's Anthony Breznican makes predictions in the movie categories, Ken Tucker offers picks on the TV side.

MOVIES: Outstanding Ensemble

The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Les Misérables
Silver Linings Playbook

Will Win/Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis' work is so uncanny it threatens to overshadow the great work of his many co-stars, but Lincoln is no one-man-show. On the other hand, Silver Linings Playbook is the film where most of its stars are on equal footing, making it the truest ensemble of the bunch. It's a showcase for the group, rather than one single stand-out performer.

Worth Noting: Many consider this SAG's version of the Best Picture award, and voters may think of it the same way, voting for the movie they liked the most, rather than the cast they liked the most. If Argo wins, it will be a sure sign that the thriller is on a path to Best Picture at the Academy Awards, despite (or perhaps TO spite) the snubbing of director Ben Affleck.

MOVIES: Outstanding Male Actor

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
Denzel Washington, Flight

Will Win/Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis. Last year, the SAG Awards is where the George Clooney train came to a halt, and The Artist's Jean Dujardin's surprise victory propelled him to the Best Actor Oscar. If anyone is going to step on Day-Lewis' Lincoln coattails, it might be Jackman, whose work in Les Misérables is widely admired. But unless massive Daniel Fatigue has set in — and I don't think it has — this will be a sure-thing for the My Left Foot and There Will Be Blood actor. He's still drinking everyone else's milkshake.

MOVIES: Outstanding Female Actor

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Should Win: The Best Actress is not a lock for anyone. To be honest, either Jessica Chastain or Jennifer Lawrence could win (with a dark horse possibility in The Impossible's Naomi Watts). Jessica Chastain gave a gripping performance in Zero Dark Thirty.

Will Win: But I give the slightest edge to Jennifer Lawrence, since Silver Linings Playbook has struck such a deep nerve with actors. Lawrence coupled intensity with a wild, lighter touch. And while voters admire Zero Dark Thirty, Silver Linings pushes more emotional buttons. But as I said, nothing is definite here, and Chastain is much admired by her peers and very likely could claim it.

MOVIES: Outstanding Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Alan Arkin, Argo
Javier Bardem, Skyfall
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Should Win: Battle of the curmudgeons. The Supporting Actor race is a collection of the gruff and tough. Although Tommy Lee Jones gave the most rousing of all the performances, he lost the Globe to Django Unchained's Christoph Waltz (not nominated here). Winning something big, like the SAG Award, would push him to frontrunner status.

Will Win: But Robert De Niro's work as a frustrated, football-obsessed, OCD dad is considered a return to form for an actor's actor who has too long been seen as doing paycheck work that is beneath his talent. The actors guild could well reward him for coming back to his old self for Silver Linings Playbook.

MOVIES: Outstanding Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Will Win/Should Win: Along with Daniel Day-Lewis, Anne Hathaway is as close to we come to a certainty this award season. Her strongest rival is Lincoln's Sally Field, a veteran who has charmed many voters this season. Field has worked in television and movies, and has several decades of experience on Hathaway, so her many, many relationships could help put her over the top. This is where Hathaway is most vulnerable, and if the Les Miz actress is triumphant, her path to the Oscar seems assured.

TV: Outstanding Drama Ensemble

Boardwalk Empire
Breaking Bad
Downton Abbey
Mad Men

Will Win/Should Win: It's Homeland's time in the sun — the brightest, most powerful drama around right now.

TV: Outstanding Male Actor, Drama

Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Damian Lewis, Homeland

Should Win: Poor Jon Hamm keeps getting aced out of various awards by first Bryan Cranston and lately Damian Lewis, but he deserves this prize.

Will Win: On the other hand, I think Damian Lewis will win, for another excellent Homeland season.

TV: Outstanding Female Actor, Drama

Claire Danes, Homeland
Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey
Jessica Lange, American Horror Story: Asylum
Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey

Will Win/Should Win: Claire Danes is undeniable for her continuing excellence as a CIA analyst always struggling to juggle her character's brilliance with Carrie's instability.

TV: Outstanding Comedy Ensemble

30 Rock
The Big Bang Theory
Modern Family
Nurse Jackie
The Office

Should Win: I think Modern Family — which at this point has been praised for so long it's practically UNDER-rated — ought to win.

Will Win: I'd bet that Big Bang Theory will be recognized for its tight ensemble work.

TV: Outstanding Male Actor, Comedy

Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Louis C.K., Louie
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family

Should Win: If I were choosing a performance that combined elements of seriousness along with comic inventiveness, I'd give it to Louie C.K.

Will Win: Ty Burrell is Modern Family's never-fail laugh-getter.

TV: Outstanding Female Actor, Comedy

Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
Betty White, Hot in Cleveland

Will Win/Should Win: Call me a crazy optimist, but I feel as though it's time for Amy Poehler to start winning as many awards as possible for her brilliant portrayal of idealistic Lesley Knope.

TV: Outstanding Male Actor, TV Movie or Miniseries

Kevin Costner, Hatfields & McCoys
Woody Harrelson, Game Change
Ed Harris, Game Change
Clive Owen, Hemingway & Gellhorn
Bill Paxton, Hatfields & McCoys

Should Win: Clive Owen's re-thinking of the Hemingway image and myth was outstanding and deserving.

Will Win: Ed Harris' uncanny McCain embodiment will probably secure him a win.

TV: Outstanding Female Actor, TV Movie or Miniseries

Nicole Kidman, Hemingway & Gellhorn
Julianne Moore, Game Change
Charlotte Rampling, Restless
Sigourney Weaver, Political Animals
Alfre Woodard, Steel Magnolias

Will Win/Should Win: Julianne Moore brought nuance to what could have been a cartoonish impersonation of Sarah Palin; her transformation as well as her acting choices merit the SAG award.


Agree or disagree with the list? Who do you want to win at the SAG Awards?