lollapoe (lollapoe) wrote in ohnotheydidnt,

Monday Oscar Post, week 6 - We're Back.

Oscar Futures:Grit Happens

Every week between now and January 25 when the nominations are announced, movies and stars will help themselves — or sometimes, hurt themselves — in the Oscar race.
For the sixth week (last week's post right here), we continue our coverage of Vulture's Oscar Futures to find out who's up, who's down, and who's currently leading the race for a coveted nomination – now added Foreign Film and Animated Feature.

Best Picture

UP: True Grit. It's finally been seen, the embargo has lifted, and reviews seem to indicate it's good enough to snag one of the ten slots that everyone already assumed it would.

Down:Blue Valentine. Winter's Bone and Kids Are All Right's Independent Spirit nods were no surprise — but Valentine's near-shutout kinda was.

CURRENT PREDIX: 127 Hours, Another Year, Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter’s Bone.

Best Director

UP: Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit. They're "at the top of their game" or they're working outside of their usual idiom with nice results. Either way, most news is good news.

DOWN: Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan. Swan's reviews are generally good, but his direction has been dinged by some critics who don't like their psychosexual ballet thrillers as over-the-top as Manohla does.

CURRENT PREDIX: Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan; Danny Boyle, 127 Hours; David Fincher, The Social Network; Tom Hooper, The King's Speech; Christopher Nolan, Inception.

Best Actor

UP: Jeff Bridges, True Grit. Not only is he allegedly better than he was in Crazy Heart, he's better than John Wayne was in 1969's original Grit (which won Wayne an Oscar).

DOWN: James Franco, 127 Hours. Not since 1958 has an Oscar host also won Best Actor. Good luck, James!

CURRENT PREDIX: Javier Bardem, Biutiful; Jeff Bridges, True Grit; Robert Duvall, Get Low; Colin Firth, The King's Speech; James Franco, 127 Hours.

Best Actress

UP: Natalie Portman, Black Swan. With the movie finally in theaters this week, she's predictably everywhere. She "gives the kind of performance that wins awards," says New York's David Edelstein.

DOWN: Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone. Not that the Gotham Awards are any great predictor of anything, but how did she lose for Breakthrough Actor?

CURRENT PREDIX: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right; Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole; Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone; Lesley Manville, Another Year; Natalie Portman, Black Swan.

Best Supporting Actor

UP: Matt Damon, True Grit. He steals the movie!

DOWN: Armie Hammer, The Social Network. The Gurus o' Gold and Gold Derby's experts still don't think he'll nominated. And here comes his costar Justin Timberlake's Oscar campaign, allegedly. (FINALLY.)

CURRENT PREDIX: Christian Bale, The Fighter; Armie Hammer, The Social Network; Ed Harris, The Way Back; Sam Rockwell, Conviction; Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech. (lol at their Hammer insistence)

Best Supporting Actress

UP: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit. She steals the movie!

DOWN: Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right. Wouldn't she rather drop down to supporting and win than lose to Natalie Portman in lead? She's kinda running out of time here...

CURRENT PREDIX: Helena Bonham-Carter, The King's Speech; Melissa Leo, The Fighter; Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham; Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit; Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom.

Best Foreign Film

CURRENT PREDICTIONS: MEXICO's dark drama, "Biutiful", the SOUTH AFRICAN village AIDS drama, "Life Above all", CANADA’S "Incendies" , and TURKEY’S "Honey".
See the last post for more details and other possibilities.

Best Animated Feature

CURRENT PREDICTIONS: The best bets are, "Toy Story 3", and How to Train Your Dragon. The third spot, right now, looks like it belongs to “Tangled, which” made a real impact at the box office. Animators respect “The Illusionist,” but it’s hard to argue with the blanket critical and popular approval of Disney’s gem.

Other Possibilities: The Illusionist, Despicable Me.

Source: NY Mag
Tags: award show - academy awards, film, film poster

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