This Academy voter - a producer - did not beat around the bush. Went straight to the point not necessarily about who they would vote for, but those they figured were locks so it's like 'meh fuck it, I'll vote the same.' Since THR's taking their sweet time to post their honest ballots this week, Indiewire's doing a solid.
Before I get to the breakdown, this person gets fucking honest about how Academy voters are lazy as hell and don't go out and see movies. Hence why the likes of Denzel Washington or Meryl Streep keep. Fucking. Getting. Nominated. For. Mediocre. Performances. Best Picture:
legit says for the nominated films are 'the bar is medium high,' and that the movies are fine, but not amazing (except The Post which is dullsville). Having said this, this producer contrarily goes for yet another British generic period piece 'Darkest Hour' as their top pick. They expect 'The Shape of Water' will win anyway, and can't imagine Three Billboards ("the movie about racist cops") to win, especially since it didn't get the director nod (they say, and I quote, that this is 'not Argo'). Screenplays:
Like the WGA wins, they presume 'Get Out' will get original, and 'Call Me By Your Name' gets adapted. Best Director:
Expects Guillermo del Toro as a lock for the win, but thinks Greta Gerwig has a chance given her PR team?Best Actor:
Verbatim: "Gary Oldman is a lock."Best Actress:
Expects it to be Frances McDormand, but can see Sally Hawkins or even Margot Robbie maybe possibly slipping in.Supporting Actor:
Assumes Rockwell is a lock, but thinks there could be an upset with well-loved Willem Dafoe. Supporting Actress:
Assumes Allison Janney's flashy role will get her the gold.
More tech/craft choices at the source. Also fuck this person for blindly just picking Oldman because he's a lock. Contrarian all around.