HITS breaks down the current sales climate and assesses if Taylor can once again sell 1 million first week with Lover, due out Friday
•Her previous four albums opened with over 1 million units sold, she's the only artist to do so (NSYNC, BSB, and Eminem all have two)
•The market has shifted dramatically–even in just the 1.5 years since reputation was released
•Points to Drake as an example – Views opened in 2016 with 1.04m sold (852k pure) and two years later, Scorpion "only" sold 732k (with only 160k pure, a loss of 692k pure units sold). Scorpion, did, however, break the record for most album streams in a single week (746 million).
•Through July, YTD digital album downloads are down 43% vs. the same period in 2017
•Digital downloads made up 58% of reputations first week (over 700k)
•Industry observers are forecasting 200-250k digital downloads for Lover – they see it as being impossible to repeat her sales with reputation
•Despite her retail partnership with Target, physical sales are down 30% since reputation dropped
•Streaming is up 80% in the last two years
•The tracks released from Lover so far have generated a "respectable" 250 million streams to date
•Ariana Grande had 500 million streams from pre-release singles leading up to thank u, next (the album); the album was streamed 307 million times in its first week
•They say she would need to have streams on par with Ariana to come close to 1 million
•They don't actually end up saying if they think she'll do it or not, but the odds are seemingly against her
•ONTD will seethe either way!