12:35 am - 12/12/2012

Oscarwatch: Campaigning & Predictions

We’re a month away from the announcement of the Oscar nominations, and many things happened in the past week or so that affected the current landscape of the race: Zero Dark Thirty came in strong, taking several of the early critics awards for the movie and its director Kathryn Bigelow, Les Miserables proved to be a more divisive movie than the first fawning reactions led us to believe, Argo and Silver Linings Playbook both failed to live up to its early expectations (though the latter remains a strong presence in acting categories), and the much, much hyped as an early frontrunner Lincoln seems on track to repeat the performance of past “important” movies that fail to generate genuine excitement in audiences and just end up feeling like homework: a respectable awards run filled with nominations that just don’t amount to much in the end.

That said, before we get into this week’s predictions, it might be interesting to address something that comes up a lot in the comment section: Campaigning. What is it? Who does it? Is it a product of modern times (spoiler alert: no.)? In short, campaigns are about getting your film to be seen and remembered among the 8 billion screeners that pile up at the end of the year – often, achieving that means holding as many screenings and Q&As as you possibly can, selling a memorable narrative to go along with the film, and getting the most recognizable faces attached to that project (actors and some directors) out there, reinforcing the message for you. So without further ado, let’s start with what the film executives have to say on the matter, move on to some campaigning history, and then hear from an “awards consultant”:

Film Executives talk about the reasons to campaignCollapse )
Great Moments in Oscar Campaigning (and Not-So-Great)Collapse ).

Campaign Managers: The Secrets of an Awards-Season InfluencerCollapse )

The PredictionsCollapse )

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josh_the_k 12th-Dec-2012 06:13 am (UTC)
This article is wrong. "Lincoln" is going to win best picture. "Zero Dark Thirty" is a strong contender, though. "Playbook" gets acting noms, and maybe wins. "Argo" gets noms, but few wins. "Les Mis" gets a lot of noms, but goes home empty-handed.
margeauxmarit 12th-Dec-2012 06:24 am (UTC)
I have to see quite a few of these still. This is pretty shocking for someone who is in a movie theater 2-5 days a week! Ha! Guess I've seen a lot of shit this year!
joaniemaloney 12th-Dec-2012 06:20 pm (UTC)
this is me! there's def a lot of films I still have to see but I'm feeling pretty good about how much ground I've covered this year.
allysouu 12th-Dec-2012 07:18 am (UTC)
I finally saw Argo and maybe it was because I went in with such high expectations but I was so let down. I'll be annoyed down if and when Ben Affleck gets a direction nom
bossm 12th-Dec-2012 11:29 am (UTC)
I agree with you. I was so amazed by this movie idea but it wasn't that great. I like Affleck's other movies more.
agnes_perdita 12th-Dec-2012 07:19 am (UTC)
I don't mind the race right now. Jostling for nominations is always a more competitive stage of the race anyway. It's when the noms are done and you start to get all the ceremonies and winners that everything starts feeling like a deathly slog towards inevitability.
somerset 12th-Dec-2012 09:57 am (UTC)
I'm surprised there's no mention of Natalie "I became a prima ballerina in a year" Portman and her cgi-ed head.
joaquins 12th-Dec-2012 10:01 am (UTC)
thethingiswhat 12th-Dec-2012 11:23 am (UTC)
I feel like this is a year where none of my faves stand a chance of winning, which sucks. Joaquin, Bradley, De Niro, PSH, and Amy basically stand no chance because of Lincoln/Les Mis. I'm hoping there are some surprises this year and that things aren't as cut and dry as they seem right now.
champagnexdream 12th-Dec-2012 11:54 am (UTC)
I hope the Leo prediction comes true and damn it do I hope he wins. If he wins for a Tarantino movie, maybe he'll continue to expand his horizons this way.
ellaellaeheheh 12th-Dec-2012 01:36 pm (UTC)
I think I can actually watch all the movies this year. lets see
gabzillaz 12th-Dec-2012 02:04 pm (UTC)
I only care about the animated category and Brave better not win that.
joaniemaloney 12th-Dec-2012 06:19 pm (UTC)
I'm rooting for Wreck-It Ralph, by a few hairs. I never expected to love it that much but it's gotten up on my top list.
gabzillaz 12th-Dec-2012 06:21 pm (UTC)
I'm rooting for ParanormaL
melissssssssa 22nd-Dec-2012 01:44 am (UTC)
Paranorman all the way!
emilynine 12th-Dec-2012 03:59 pm (UTC)
all these matthew mcconaughey haters have obviously not seen Killer Joe. i am usually not one to speak up but he was literally flawless in that movie and embodied the role perfectly. i left the theater feeling a stronger respect for actors tbh!
joaniemaloney 12th-Dec-2012 06:18 pm (UTC)
late comment but I'd just like to say that I LOVE THESE POSTS! :D:D

reading all of this. love this time of the year even though I inevitably get mad once the Oscars roll around. oh well. can't quit won't quit.
melissssssssa 22nd-Dec-2012 01:44 am (UTC)
Really surprised Javier Bardem in Skyfall isn't predicted
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