4:26 pm - 11/13/2012

DVR ratings: 'Nikita' season 3 gains, 'Nashville' stays strong

The week of October 22 proved to be a rather impressive one when it came to DVR ratings. How much so? Let’s just leave it at this: there are so many shows this week that gained more than our meaningful 45% in the 18-49 demographic that we have to change our criteria a little bit. If everyone is making huge gains via DVRs, they are suddenly a little less impressive. With that in mind, the shows we are focusing on this week are those who need assistance via recordings to stay alive, and also those who still have a reasonable shot of being back for another season. (Sorry, “Private Practice” and “Fringe”: although they each made huge gains of over 75%, their shows are ending this year regardless.)

Just a note for those curious: this week featured a Presidential debate, which explains why “Revolution” is not on this list as it has been as of late. (Data via TVbythenumbers.)

“Nikita” – The great news here is the show’s season 3 episode this week grew an incredible 100% following its initial airing. The problem? 100% of a 0.2 is still pretty bad. For now, we’re sticking with the prediction that Maggie Q and company will receive a fourth season for syndication purposes, but The CW may air the episodes in the off months or the summer, where they are not sacrificing a timeslot to make it happen.

“Last Resort” – The fact that this show is still gaining more than 60% is impressive, but its initial rating in a 1.3 is still so bad that its 2.1 after the DVR numbers is still not that great. Our general rule is that if your show with recording figures is still lower than the show that either precedes or follows you (in this case “Grey’s Anatomy”), you are in trouble.

“Nashville” – Not only is the show still posting a 2.0 rating, but it is gaining 60% after the fact. While ABC will probably take a wait-and-see approach for the spring, Connie Britton should expect to be around for a full season.

“Grimm” – Even when “Grimm” had one of its best performances ever in a 2.0 rating, it still gained 60% to a 3.2. Don’t expect NBC to send this show out to pasture anytime soon given its DVR figures and its difficult Friday timeslot.

“Hart of Dixie” – It’s not the 0.8 rating and 60% gain that The CW probably loves; at this point, it may just be the fact that this is the only show on the first two nights of the week that is consistently drawing a 0.5. “Hart of Dixie” is no ratings smash, but it’s surviving well enough to probably get a season 3.

Also, an “honorable mention” shoutout has to go to both “Elementary” and “666 Park Avenue” for each gaining more than 54%. However, the latter show is still a goner.

Update: “Nashville” has now received a full season.

Largest 18-49 Demo Percentage Increase From DVR Viewing for Broadcast TV Shows:

ShowsNet18-49 L+SD (Rating)18-49 L+7 (Rating)Post Airdate Increase (Absolute)Post Airdate Increase (%)
Private Practice-10/23ABC1.
AMERICA'S TOP MOD-13COLLG-10/26CW0.40.70.375.0%
Gossip Girl-MON-10/22CW0.40.70.375.0%
Grey'S ANATOMY-10/25ABC3.04.91.963.3%
Last Resort-10/25ABC1.32.10.861.5%
Hart Of Dixie-10/23CW0.50.80.360.0%
30 Rock-10/25NBC1.21.90.758.3%
666 PARK AVE-10/28ABC1.62.50.956.3%
New Girl-10/23FOX2.74.21.555.6%
Vampire Diaries-10/25CW1.32.00.753.8%
Mentalist, THE-10/28CBS1.82.70.950.0%
Chicago Fire-10/24NBC1.82.70.950.0%
Beauty And The Beast-10/25CW0.60.90.350.0%
Modern Family-10/24ABC4.97.32.449.0%
NEW NORMAL-10/23NBC1.72.50.847.1%

Source 1 2

Someone needs to explain to me why "everyone...making huge gains via DVRs" means that they are "suddenly a little less impressive." Shouldn't that be a sign to the networks that people are changing the way they watch television and that the networks need to adjust their perception of ratings and their strategies accordingly?
megalixer 13th-Nov-2012 09:59 pm (UTC)
idk, if you're on the business side of the industry then the profit is your job, the executives in charge of scheduling, promotion, sales et. al. don't have anything to do with the creative side. I mean, I don't think anyone, even the network executives, get too excited about shows like CSI and Two and a Half Men but they're running a business, not a charity. Unfortunately there's a small market for quality material and an even smaller paying market. I mean, I dl and stream shows illegally so I'm part of the problem, but the only way to vote in the entertainment world is with your $$$.
jaimelannister 13th-Nov-2012 10:21 pm (UTC)
IA about the voting with your money part. I feel so guilty for spending £63 on a Bones boxset when I could have saved it for something else :/
megalixer 13th-Nov-2012 10:45 pm (UTC)
No worries, I've never paid a cent for most of my favorite TV shows and I am so bad about financially supporting films that I like. I bitch about lazy Hollywood sequels all the time and yet when I go to the movies it's almost always to see big blockbusters and I end up dl'ing the smaller and/or indie films that I'm interested in. I film snob it up with the best of them but when I look at what I actually paid to see this year, it's been . . . The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises, and Skyfall lololol. Meanwhile I'm really excited for The Master but I'm almost positive I'll end up dl'ing it :P
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