4:26 pm - 11/13/2012
The week of October 22 proved to be a rather impressive one when it came to DVR ratings. How much so? Let’s just leave it at this: there are so many shows this week that gained more than our meaningful 45% in the 18-49 demographic that we have to change our criteria a little bit. If everyone is making huge gains via DVRs, they are suddenly a little less impressive. With that in mind, the shows we are focusing on this week are those who need assistance via recordings to stay alive, and also those who still have a reasonable shot of being back for another season. (Sorry, “Private Practice” and “Fringe”: although they each made huge gains of over 75%, their shows are ending this year regardless.)
Just a note for those curious: this week featured a Presidential debate, which explains why “Revolution” is not on this list as it has been as of late. (Data via TVbythenumbers.)
“Nikita” – The great news here is the show’s season 3 episode this week grew an incredible 100% following its initial airing. The problem? 100% of a 0.2 is still pretty bad. For now, we’re sticking with the prediction that Maggie Q and company will receive a fourth season for syndication purposes, but The CW may air the episodes in the off months or the summer, where they are not sacrificing a timeslot to make it happen.
“Last Resort” – The fact that this show is still gaining more than 60% is impressive, but its initial rating in a 1.3 is still so bad that its 2.1 after the DVR numbers is still not that great. Our general rule is that if your show with recording figures is still lower than the show that either precedes or follows you (in this case “Grey’s Anatomy”), you are in trouble.
“Nashville” – Not only is the show still posting a 2.0 rating, but it is gaining 60% after the fact. While ABC will probably take a wait-and-see approach for the spring, Connie Britton should expect to be around for a full season.
“Grimm” – Even when “Grimm” had one of its best performances ever in a 2.0 rating, it still gained 60% to a 3.2. Don’t expect NBC to send this show out to pasture anytime soon given its DVR figures and its difficult Friday timeslot.
“Hart of Dixie” – It’s not the 0.8 rating and 60% gain that The CW probably loves; at this point, it may just be the fact that this is the only show on the first two nights of the week that is consistently drawing a 0.5. “Hart of Dixie” is no ratings smash, but it’s surviving well enough to probably get a season 3.
Also, an “honorable mention” shoutout has to go to both “Elementary” and “666 Park Avenue” for each gaining more than 54%. However, the latter show is still a goner.
Update: “Nashville” has now received a full season.
Source 1 2
Someone needs to explain to me why "everyone...making huge gains via DVRs" means that they are "suddenly a little less impressive." Shouldn't that be a sign to the networks that people are changing the way they watch television and that the networks need to adjust their perception of ratings and their strategies accordingly?
DVR ratings: 'Nikita' season 3 gains, 'Nashville' stays strong
The week of October 22 proved to be a rather impressive one when it came to DVR ratings. How much so? Let’s just leave it at this: there are so many shows this week that gained more than our meaningful 45% in the 18-49 demographic that we have to change our criteria a little bit. If everyone is making huge gains via DVRs, they are suddenly a little less impressive. With that in mind, the shows we are focusing on this week are those who need assistance via recordings to stay alive, and also those who still have a reasonable shot of being back for another season. (Sorry, “Private Practice” and “Fringe”: although they each made huge gains of over 75%, their shows are ending this year regardless.)
Just a note for those curious: this week featured a Presidential debate, which explains why “Revolution” is not on this list as it has been as of late. (Data via TVbythenumbers.)
“Nikita” – The great news here is the show’s season 3 episode this week grew an incredible 100% following its initial airing. The problem? 100% of a 0.2 is still pretty bad. For now, we’re sticking with the prediction that Maggie Q and company will receive a fourth season for syndication purposes, but The CW may air the episodes in the off months or the summer, where they are not sacrificing a timeslot to make it happen.
“Last Resort” – The fact that this show is still gaining more than 60% is impressive, but its initial rating in a 1.3 is still so bad that its 2.1 after the DVR numbers is still not that great. Our general rule is that if your show with recording figures is still lower than the show that either precedes or follows you (in this case “Grey’s Anatomy”), you are in trouble.
“Nashville” – Not only is the show still posting a 2.0 rating, but it is gaining 60% after the fact. While ABC will probably take a wait-and-see approach for the spring, Connie Britton should expect to be around for a full season.
“Grimm” – Even when “Grimm” had one of its best performances ever in a 2.0 rating, it still gained 60% to a 3.2. Don’t expect NBC to send this show out to pasture anytime soon given its DVR figures and its difficult Friday timeslot.
“Hart of Dixie” – It’s not the 0.8 rating and 60% gain that The CW probably loves; at this point, it may just be the fact that this is the only show on the first two nights of the week that is consistently drawing a 0.5. “Hart of Dixie” is no ratings smash, but it’s surviving well enough to probably get a season 3.
Also, an “honorable mention” shoutout has to go to both “Elementary” and “666 Park Avenue” for each gaining more than 54%. However, the latter show is still a goner.
Update: “Nashville” has now received a full season.
Largest 18-49 Demo Percentage Increase From DVR Viewing for Broadcast TV Shows:
| Shows | Net | 18-49 L+SD (Rating) | 18-49 L+7 (Rating) | Post Airdate Increase (Absolute) | Post Airdate Increase (%) |
| Nikita-10/26 | CW | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 100.0% |
| Private Practice-10/23 | ABC | 1.4 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 85.7% |
| FRINGE-10/26 | FOX | 0.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 77.8% |
| 90210-10/22 | CW | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 75.0% |
| AMERICA'S TOP MOD-13COLLG-10/26 | CW | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 75.0% |
| Gossip Girl-MON-10/22 | CW | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 75.0% |
| SUPERNATURAL-10/24 | CW | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 71.4% |
| Grey'S ANATOMY-10/25 | ABC | 3.0 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 63.3% |
| Last Resort-10/25 | ABC | 1.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 61.5% |
| NASHVILLE-10/24 | ABC | 2.0 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 60.0% |
| Grimm-10/26 | NBC | 2.0 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 60.0% |
| Hart Of Dixie-10/23 | CW | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 60.0% |
| 30 Rock-10/25 | NBC | 1.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 58.3% |
| 666 PARK AVE-10/28 | ABC | 1.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 56.3% |
| New Girl-10/23 | FOX | 2.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 55.6% |
| OFFICE-10/25 | NBC | 2.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 55.0% |
| ELEMENTARY-10/25 | CBS | 2.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 54.5% |
| Vampire Diaries-10/25 | CW | 1.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 53.8% |
| PARENTHOOD-10/23 | NBC | 1.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 52.6% |
| Mentalist, THE-10/28 | CBS | 1.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 50.0% |
| Chicago Fire-10/24 | NBC | 1.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 50.0% |
| Beauty And The Beast-10/25 | CW | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 50.0% |
| Modern Family-10/24 | ABC | 4.9 | 7.3 | 2.4 | 49.0% |
| REVENGE-10/28 | ABC | 2.7 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 48.1% |
| NEW NORMAL-10/23 | NBC | 1.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 47.1% |
Source 1 2
Someone needs to explain to me why "everyone...making huge gains via DVRs" means that they are "suddenly a little less impressive." Shouldn't that be a sign to the networks that people are changing the way they watch television and that the networks need to adjust their perception of ratings and their strategies accordingly?
Yes, but we all know how much rich white men (mostly) like to change to suit the rest of the world, rather than the other way around.
Edited at 2012-11-13 09:40 pm (UTC)
TV execs want to budge as little as possible. If they actually rethought their business strategy they would have a better chance of competing with free streams, but not if they are half-assing it by only having new episodes on netflix instant a while after they air. Even the next day isn't fast enough, because anyone who likes the show enough to pay for it already started downloading it 15 min after it was finished.
Edited at 2012-11-13 09:55 pm (UTC)
a) people with high-tier jobs at networks being old and not internet-savvy, and half
b) legal traffic jams of who licenses what, who has the right to show what, et. al.
And while I think your strategy is a step in the right direction, idk, I just don't think that anything in the current online delivery paradigm, even if it's available much more quickly and a generally better experience, can compete with free. I mean, I don't generally watch TV when it airs so I think I'd pirate anyways - even if $3 isn't that much, if I know I can get it for free for not much hassle then I'm realistically going to do that.
Traditional TV will be around for a while longer because of old people, but I could see a move towards production engineered for the internet, like how Netflix is getting Arrested Development season 4. My personal idea (no idea if it would work or not tbh) would be to have networks work almost like a Kickstarter - produce a pilot, release it for free, and then make the rest of the season if enough people pay to 'subscribe' to it. It wouldn't eliminate piracy but maybe if you could make people feel more directly responsible for the existence of the show then you'd get more people paying.
I have only one qualm with this sort of system and it stems from the fact that with the advent of social networking and its increasing popularity, fans are becoming increasingly vocal (sometimes to the point where it's too too much) about wanting showrunners to listen to them and demanding things of shows that the fans feel they are entitled to as loyal viewers.
I feel like if fans were too also become a dominant source of funding for the shows they watch, this would escalate dramatically and I really do wonder what would happen to the quality of programming.
I do think that you have a valid point but I think there are positive sides to that aspect as well. You definitely wouldn't get the bloated runs with diminishing returns of a lot of US television series have if shows were more reliant on attracting fans devoted enough to pay and not just drawing enough viewers to watch out of curiosity. I think there's a reason that most of the most critically acclaimed shows on TV today are on premium cable, which is sort of the same idea but spread across several shows instead of focused on just one.
Itunes should be cheaper than an actual physical product but it's just the same as paperback books often costing lesss these days than the e-book version. You just feel like a mug ifyou're buying shows on iTunes when the price difference can be so huge. It's annoying though because I'd much rather keep my films and shows all on my ipad and not keep buying DVD's , but if you can pick up film DVD's for £2.99 at Tesco's then why spend the £10.99 that apple is ussually asking for...
Is Alex supposed to bet his infuriating? GORRRL UGH
Oop,
I hate that Navy Seal guy but I'd fuck him
okay so ratings are based on watching live tv only? i know DVR counts for something but not much, right?
but when i record shows my tv has to be on that channel so technically i'm "viewing it live" no? who's to know if i'm sitting in front of the tv when it's recording or getting ass wasted with my friends? and what if you ARE in fact watching it live while it's recording? what does that count for?
help me i'm lost.
I try to watch shows live that I really want to support but I don't know if they count it as a live rating or a DVR rating because I'm recording it, too. And if I decide to hit pause while I'm watching it live, does that turn me into a DVR rating, not live?
I think things like Netflix are slowly shedding light on the fact that people are still willing to pay for TV shows and movies...they just don't want to be cheated on what they purchase simply because they're doing it over the Internet. And there are ways, I think, of incorporating advertising into online viewing so that the networks still manage to turn a profit.
Now I'm not a marketing or studio exec so I'm sure I have an overly simplistic view of this, but I refuse to believe that should a network really want to utilise the Internet as a method of viewership that is equally as viable as the television (and decides to find a better rating system than fucking Nielson) they can figure it out. It can't actually be fucking impossible.
take it up with the advertisers that help pay for it. no ad revenue, no show.
That's pretty much where its at for the CW, not everyone has the channel and its way too niche by design so I guess the i-tunes, online viewing, DVD sales and DVRS will count.
Gurl, the CW has no timeslot to sacrifice. Exchanging shit ratings with other shit ratings?