Before diving too deep into our analysis of the latest notable DVR ratings, a refresher: these are live+7 numbers that include a full week of time for viewers to watch their favorite shows, and they are not nearly as significant as live viewers when it comes to whether or not a show is renewed or canceled. Our personal litmus test is that any show that gains more than 45% of its 18-49 audience by DVR viewing is one worth looking at, since otherwise it is more or less a moot point.
This week (which we are actually looking at data for the week of October 15), a number of bubble shows in the first and second seasons benefited greatly from these figures … though all of them are probably still safe from being in danger later on. (All figures via TVbythenumbers.)
“Grimm” (up 87% to a 2.8 rating) – “Grimm” is a DVR beast like no other, and it has to be all but guaranteed at the moment that this show is really going nowhere. Next to “Shark Tank,” it’s the best thing Friday night has going for it.
“Nikita” (up 67% to a 0.5) – 67% of a low number is still a really low number, and that is what we are looking at here with this show. Since a third-season renewal adds to the likelihood of a fourth thanks to syndication, our guess here is that “Nikita” will probably receive more episodes, but have to finish its run in the summer months with a reduced budget.
“Nashville” (up 65% to a 3.3) – A 2.0 rating (which the drama had for this week) was not enough to guarantee safety, but good reviews coupled with strong DVR figures may be just enough to give Connie Britton and company at least a full season.
“Chicago Fire” (up 60% to a 2.4) – This decision will probably be made at the eleventh hour. The good news is that the numbers aren’t dropping for this show; the bad news is that it is the lowest-rated drama series the network has at the moment.
“Revolution” (up 57% to a 5.2) – There’s really no point here of including this show. “Revolution” has a full season, and if it returns to these numbers in the spring, season 2 is all but guaranteed.
“Elementary” (up 52% to a 3.5) – Sherlock Holmes has not delivered numbers that will stun anyone into silence, but this is the only new CBS show in the top 25 here … and it and “CSI” are the only CBS shows in the top 20, period.
“Hart of Dixie” (up 50% to a 0.9) – The “Hart of Dixie” ratings are not stellar, but it’s all about perspective. This far, season 2 has averaged better numbers than “Gossip Girl” (in its final season), “90210,” “Nikita,” and “Emily Owens, M.D.” This should get it a season 3 almost by default.
“Scandal” (up 47% to a 2.8) – Like “Nashville,” this well-reviewed show will remain on the bubble despite these strong ratings. Luckily, at least it already has a full season.
“Last Resort” (up 47% to a 2.5) – So why is “Scandal” on the bubble and “Last Resort” in danger despite the small ratings differential? It all comes down to timeslot, and the fact that ABC likes being in business with Shonda Rhimes.
Largest 18-49 Demo Percentage Increase From DVR Viewing for Broadcast TV Shows:
|Rank||Programs||Net||18-49 Live+SD (rating)||18-49 Live+7 (rating)||Post Airdate 18-49 Rating Absolute Increase From DVR Viewing||Post Airdate 18-49 Rating % Increase from DVR Viewing|
|11||Hart Of Dixie-10/16||CW||0.6||0.9||0.3||50%|
|13||Parks and Recreation-10/18||NBC||1.6||2.4||0.8||50%|
|18||Once Upon A Time-10/21||ABC||3.3||4.8||1.5||45%|
|19||Law And Order:SVU-10/17||NBC||1.6||2.3||0.7||44%|
|24||666 PARK AVE-10/21||ABC||1.7||2.4||0.7||41%|
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Holy shit, Grimm!