ONTD

nationally it seems like it, but romney's not going to carry the swing states he needs to win via the electoral system

Everyone is saying Nate Silver is the go-to guy, and he's saying Obama has it.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/

Edited at 2012-11-04 04:34 am (UTC)

Nate Silver has Obama with an 83% chance of winning.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

They're not as close as the polls would like you to believe- Obama is in front. However, those who would vote democrat tend to be more complacent and less likely to actually go out and vote, so it's really important that everyone actually does get out there and VOTE.
Romney could win this election. It's not neck and neck, but he could.

I'm not the most political savvy person but from what I understand, they are close in the popular vote but Obama is leading (moderately) in almost all of the battleground states. If state-by-state polling is correct, it would be difficult for Romney to pull out a win.

Early polling data has Obama likely to win but I don't put cheating past Mittens tbh

there's a lot of voter intimidation/fraud/investigations going on in ohio which is the most important state. repubs are getting desperate.

i think he'll win the popular vote but not enough votes through the electoral college, which is the one that actually matters.

I feel like the media always makes every election out to be neck and neck.

As long as there is no fraud, Obama should win with no problem.



Here in Ohio, we're trying to hold onto this state for Obama. As long as democrats in Cincinnati vote, we should be fine.


Also, Nate Silver is also someone you can follow up until election day.


Did you see the Obama/Clinton rally tonight? Everyone was fired up. Obama looks confident.

romney may win the popular vote, but obama is more than likely to win the electoral vote, which is what matters - just ask al gore.

Yahoo! main page says Obama is winning in the early votes in important states

polls are never accurate

Also, did you see Ann Romney today speaking at the Romney rally? Crying and saying what a great experience it has been?


I'm just saying.

This made me feel a lot better: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html?smid=tw-share

Check fivethirtyeight and ,tbh, I've been looking up a lot of early voting articles on the news. I think it's a decent indication.

The media's trying to make it out to be closer than it is. Obama is going to win both the popular and the electoral vote. But you still need to fucking vote to make that happen, ok???

Play around with this and console yourself, no way Obama's losing this
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/03/nov-2-for-romney-to-win-state-polls-must-be-statistically-biased/

He's ahead by 4+ in Ohio and Calorado. Boom done

The BBC's swing state map/demographic breakdown makes it look like Obama's got it locked down because of swing states, but I don't want to be overly optimistic: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-17306282

I don't know how actually close they are but all I see EVER are Romney signs and I live in a blue state (Maryland). It's terrible. I kicked down a couple of them. I'm so tired of seeing them. I've seen a couple Obama signs but nowhere near as many Romney signs.

luv ur icon

lol I just screamed "Go away, Obama!" at my inbox

they all go straight into my spam box. wish i could filter out phone calls though...

I'm surprised they even have anything left to say other than offering complementary BJ's if we promise to vote.

i got 16 in an 8 hour period. then i unsubscribed and got another one from michelle obama IMMEDIATELY AFTER

I have gotten so many emails asking me to give three dollars. It is just too much.

omg, this. I thought I created a filter to have them sent directly to spam, but they keep coming through.

lol, I've almost unsubscribed a few times but I feel like I can't. It's like when a friend is constantly talking about a breakup on facebook and you want to hide their statuses but you'd feel guilty doing so.

This. Especially since I am in poor and in Alabama, nothing I do is really going to matter. I just want this to end.

omg the fucking democratic party sends me like 20 emails a day asking me to donate $3, i've unsubsribed like 5 times LEAVE ME ALOONE

God IKR? Obama I love you but stop please.

you speak the truth

LOL ikr! I literally know all of his lines when I watch his stand ups and I always crack the fuck up. His movies though...not so much. Well except Grown-ups.

Same. His stand ups are the best.

his stand up makes me do that painful crying laughter
I love him so much, on any other profession he'd be completely wasted

hes funny, but i hate his voice/delivery :/

yes, i said this yesterday!

ngl that bothered me a bit too BUT to be fair i think he was making fun of how white people think black people should be black

Edited at 2012-11-04 04:40 am (UTC)

Nah IA, some parts were funny but then there were parts that were kind of just straight mocking black people

Idk, I felt like he should have just kept it shorter and stuck to the 'Barry' and mom jean jokes

That's exactly how I felt. For every black person that exists, there are that many ways "to be black". I'm just tired of being put in a box.

yep this

It bothered me too.

IA. I could just be being sensitive because I got that "black people don't do xyz" lecture from my peers one too many times. . . but I don't think so.

Maybe its because you know Chris Rock is a big sell-out on his race.

That seems to be Tyler Perry's biggest problem.

I got the vibe that he was making fun of white people's perceptions/stereotypes of "blackness" with that part of it idk?

yeah black comedians doing this type of racial humor always gives me pause

I think it was playing on black stereotypes, but not strongly adhering to "black people only do XYZ".

Lol he wasn't telling black people how to be black. This wasn't aimed at black people for one.

Also it was clear as another person said that he was mostly playing on stereotypes that run through the minds of many anti-barack voters.

I think it's fine to be sensitive over racial issues but I tend not try to lose a sense of humor when it comes to race. We can polk fun at racial differences without it becoming offensive. Especially when it's coming from someone who actually understand the differences from the oppressed side. The only thing he probably should have left out the big family/marriage joke but overall it was fine, imo.

I love his terrible dancing.

lmao your icon

who is that with him