The bias toward Cumberbatch shouldn't be a surprise considering the profession of the experts – they're TV journalists, who've gushed rapturously over the sleuth series, which won Best Mini from both the Television Critics Assn. and BAFTA last year. They also cheered the surprise success of "Hatfields and McCoys."

However, Emmy voters tend to prefer contenders like British superstar Clive Owen as Yankee literary icon Ernest Hemingway in "Hemingway and Gellhorn." Two experts predict he'll win. One opts for Woody Harrelson as Sarah Palin campaign aide Steve Schmidt in "Game Change."

Gold Derby's Users rank the contenders in this order: Cumberbatch, Owen, Harrelson, Elba, Costner and Paxton.

This category has been very friendly to performances that have portrayed real life people. In the past 25 years, 18 performances have won that were based on real people. That gives four of this year’s nominees a leg up in the competition. In the same 25 years only seven winners were also Oscar winners. Costner did win two Oscars but neither of them were for acting. Let’s look at each of the contenders’ strengths and weaknesses.

Kevin Costner, “Hatfields & McCoys”
Costner portrays “Devil” Anse Hatfield, the patriarch of a post-Civil War family in West Virginia in a heated rivalry with the McCoy clan of Kentucky. It’s his first nomination.

Pro: Costner gives a more emotional performance, is a veteran actor (despite some of his films) and plays a real life character.

Con: He is competing against his co-star, Bill Paxton.

Benedict Cumberbatch, “Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia” (Masterpiece)
Cumberbatch earns his first nomination for playing a modern version of the classic detective in a mystery with a seductive woman.

Pro: Cumberbatch provides a reimagining of Holmes that is clever and witty. The fact that it’s a British performance might help with those snobbish Emmy voters.

Con: Cumberbatch does well but the performance is not particularly showy.